It’s time to play “Blame the Manager!”

Really, that’s been going on in New York for a month with Joe Torre, and people waiting for him to be fired.  That is incredibly unlikely to happen this year, and if it should occur, it will not happen until after the Yankees are eliminated from the playoff race.  (I don’t think that will happen either, as I feel the Yankees will make the playoffs, which is why Torre won’t be an in-season casualty.)

 But who are the candidates to be replaced before the year is out?  Every year there are always a couple, and some years a handful.  I’m going to now play the role of psychic and say which managers are likely to be axed before the year is out.

1.  Buddy Bell – Kansas City Royals

Buddy is an easy target, I know.  But he is also the most likely to be fired.  His team is horrible.  He’s in the last year of his contract.  He has a new boss.  But most importantly, he’s just a really bad manager.  I once did a study on managers, where I hypothesized that managers could be evaluated based on how much better or worse their records were compared to what the Pythagorean method would indicate.  Before I went all-out doing this study, I picked Buddy as my test-case for a bad manager.  In all four of his seasons, his team performed worse than expected (this was before he managed the Royals, so only his Tigers and Rockies experience were used.)  After I finished my study, I learned that he was actually the worst in history by this metric.  Unfortunately, my study also proved that it was a completely useless metric.  That said, Buddy is still bad, and he’ll be the first to go.  Likelihood: I’m not much of a betting man, but I’d put money on this.

2. Mike Hargrove – Seattle Mariners

Grover is in his third season.  One thing I learned from my study is that making it through your third season as a manager is something of a benchmark.  It’s in that season where management expects you to produce.  This is true throughout many sports, it seems.  Year three is the year.  The Mariners have been bad in Hargrove’s first two seasons, and they will be bad yet again this year, present position in the standings not-withstanding.  Bill Bavasi is probably on the shortest leash of any GM in baseball at this point, as he is on a year-to-year contract, so someone’s going to be the fall guy, and managers are usually the ones to go in-season.  Likelihood: Very high.

3. Charlie Manuel - Philadelphia Phillies

Manuel, like Hargrove above, is in his critical third season.  He’s got a better team than Hargrove, so he’s actually got a chance to win, or at least stay in the wild card race for most of the season, which is the only reason he’s got a better chance to keep his job.  The media in Philly has already been calling for his head.  His contract expires at the end of the year, and Pat Gillick is a different GM than the one who hired him, so there’s no sentimental attachment.  I think he’ll be axed, but not until mid-September when the Phillies are out of the race.  Likelihood: High.

4. Phil Garner – Houston Astros

Phil Garner?  I know, he was just in the World Series two years ago.  But memories can be short, and he created expectations with the postseason runs of 2004-2005.  He’s signed through 2008, so he’s not a lame duck, but when the Astros fall out of contention, it will either be Garner or Purpura to go, and my money’s on Garner to be first out the door.  Likelihood: Moderate.

 5. John Gibbons – Toronto Blue Jays

I don’t know how he still has his job.  I also don’t know how J.P. Ricciardi has his job either.  My guess is that J.P. holds incriminating pictures of Rogers, and Gibbons has similar pictures of J.P.  Or something.  Anyway, Gibbons somehow survived last season’s fights with two different players.  I’m really speechless as to how he pulled that off.  He’s also got a recent extension, but it’s only for one year.  He’s in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, and there is no way the Jays will finish in second place again.  (Last year they wouldn’t have either, were it not for the fact that Boston stopped trying by the end of August.)  If it’s the trade deadline and Toronto is behind Tampa Bay in the standings, I think we’ll have seen the last of him.  And while it might be fair to blame their struggles on the inept job of the general manager, he’s got a contract through 2010, so J.P. is going nowhere any time soon.  So Gibbons must go.  Likelihood: Moderate.

6. Sam Perlozzo – Baltimore Orioles

He’s only in the second full year of his managing tenure, but the Orioles have been out of control the past couple days, between the total meltdown of Sunday and the Payton-Mora altercation of Monday.  They’re not a good team, and like the Blue Jays and Gibbons above, play in a top-heavy division.  I’m not convinced that both of these managers will go, but I do think that whichever finishes behind the other will be sending out resumes.  From what I’ve seen (which admittedly isn’t much of the Orioles), Perlozzo has been underwhelming.  Likelihood: Moderate.

 I expect most of the above firings to occur in September, with the exceptions of Bell, which should occur sometime in late June or early July to get fans excited about something in KC, and Hargrove, who will be gone around the same time, to justify the Mariners being sellers at the trade deadline to a fanbase that expects, and deserves, more.

Explore posts in the same categories: Baseball, managers

Tags: Bill Bavasi

You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.